Dr. Jasna Plevnik

Recognizing Kosovo as an independent state U.S. President George W. Bush has stated that this would bring peace to the West Balkans. It is not sure that many understand why this role to Kosovo has been given.

Currently, the birth of the Republic of Kosova could not be understood as an event, which will increase the level of political, military and economic stability in the region. It challenges Serbia to react military and change its foreign policy aims.

At the moment the concept of stability in southeast Europe is based on partnership of all countries in the region with NATO and on entering the alliance. That concept could face a great challenge if Serbia gives up of it. Serbian government and people are deeply divided about country's future in EU and NATO.

The fact is that the countries in the region, which recognize the independent Kosovo and establish diplomatic relations with Kosovo, will inevitably deteriorate relations with Serbia. The Bosnia and Herzegovina will not recognize the new country until the process is brought up by the representatives of the Republic of Srpska in the parliament of the Federation. This decision favours the maintenance of stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Montenegro and Macedonia will not be leading in the recognition of the new country.

Croatia must coordinate its policy towards the recognition of Kosovo on bilateral and multilateral level because Croatia, as a temporary member of Security Council at the UN, might get into confrontation with Serbia on the issue of Kosovo.

Croatia will participate with its policemen in operation EULEX (1), which could be perceived negatively by Serbia, because this mission, unlike UNMIK where Croatian policemen also take part, was proclaimed illegal by Serbia.

Croatian recognition of Kosovo depends on the policy of EU regarding Kosovo, which obviously is not unique. But, first of all it should depend on the calculation of possible economic damage to Croatian companies. Ad hoc boycott of Croatian goods would be less dangerous than long-term policy of economic embargo or violating rules of free trading between countries in the region, implemented by CEFTA. As long as President Boris Tadic's EU option has an effect on Serbian government, serious economic confrontation is less likely. The problem is that the Serbian coalition government is divided about the ways of reaction on Kosovo independence.

Tadic announced the possibility of conducting new parliamentary elections in May in his speech on the 44 th Conference on security in politics in Munich.(2) If Vojislav Koątunica's Democratic party of Serbia forms a coalition with Serbian radical party, it would increase challenges to the stability of the region, particularly to the Bosnia and Herzegovina through the Republic of Srpska, and in that case approaching to the EU and NATO would be slowed down or blocked not only for Serbia.

Present geopolitical context differs from the 1990s

While in countries like Croatia and Slovenia there is fear of economic consequences in case of recognition of Kosovo, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro they have to think more about the impact on internal stability because of their ethnic Albanian population.

Regardless of all these factors, the fear of armed conflict in the region is considerably alleviated because of the fact that the major super-power supports the new country and there is an American military base in Kosovo, the second largest base in the world, and the forces of KFOR. EU is again divided on Kosovo in its own courtyard but generally it is following America's policy towards Kosovo.

Besides, all the countries in the region, as well as Serbia, are in the Partnership for peace with the NATO and are already participating in joint military contingent and peace-keeping missions of NATO (3), so they are reforming their armies according to the requirements of the military alliance (4).

Good relations with the NATO make the countries in the region believe that NATO will play possibility a major role in case of further escalation of conflict between Serbia and Kosovo. Things can also complicate because Serbia has the support from Russia. But for now any conflict because of Kosovo and Serbia, which could grow into greater dimensions like cold or hot war, seems incredible, as well as the possibility for Serbia to enter the Shanghai organization for cooperation or Common organization for security cooperation.

Present geopolitical context in the region of southeast Europe differs from the state at the beginning of 1990s because all the countries in the region, including the new country Kosovo and Serbia have set their strategic goals to be entering EU and NATO.

This is the factor, which is the strongest guarantee of the stability in the region and present political relations between relevant forces in Serbia; it doesn't seem realistic that Serbia will give up these goals. In case it happened it would pave the way to the greater destabilization of the region and worsen the relations between the super-powers.

In Croatia, Macedonia and Albania, the countries which are waiting to be called to enter the membership in April this year, political elites consider that potential instability in Kosovo and energy break out of Russia to Western Balkans favour them and that they can count on entering the NATO even this year. On the other hand Kosovo isn't the main topic in NATO, it's Afghanistan and the reform of NATO in direction of change a doctrine and coordination with the American and Russian ones that is with the right on preventive attacks.

NATO is faced with solving problems of global terrorism, and not with ethnic conflicts. The strategic concept of NATO concerning the Balkans was in the 1990s focused on ethnic conflicts and since 2001 on preventing the Balkans to become the refuge for terrorists.

The statements made by the General secretary of NATO, Jaap de Hoop Scheffera, shows how all the states in the region, regardless of circumstances, have to meet all obligations, and all of them are not of military character. Admission to the security of NATO is broad and includes political, social and economic elements. Macedonia has got major praise, while Albania is expected to carry out faster reforms in legal system and election system. It is known that Croatia has problems in administration of justice. Apart form that in Croatia, less than 50 percent of citizens approve of joining NATO, unlike Albania where that percentage is much higher.

_____________________________
1 Engagement of EU is bound to the operation called EULEX which should replace the UN's mission in Kosovo.

2 "We may be compelled to conduct new parliamentary elections in May. But I know that by working together-by not losing track of the goal we share-we can contribute to an outcome that is good for Serbia, good or the region, good for Europe, and good or local security." From speech of Boris Tadić on the Conference on security in politics in Munich, February 8 th, 2008.

3 Croatia and Macedonia have been included in the European defence security policy as candidates for the membership in the EU. Croatia participates in many peace missions.

4 Montenegro expects to enter in the year 2012, and for Bonia and Hezegovina as well as Serbia the term for the membership hasn't been set yet.