Research and Opinion

Scientifically predicted war in Ukraine

Tang Shiping: Why does the United States want Russia to send troops to Ukraine?

 2022-03-02 04:00

Editor's note

 On January 25, 2022, the author of this article publicly and explicitly predicted that Russia will send troops to Ukraine with a high probability, which will be in this winter (click the link to go https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JHBeH1BHWYImxDnfYhUOdg).  

When publishing the prediction, the author made it clear that whether the prediction is correct or not, the author will publish the author's predictionmodel (a simple game model of three actors) and the deduction process.

 On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military strike against Ukraine.  Therefore, the author's prediction succeeded (although the author did not want war to break out).  To this end, the "Complex Decision Analysis Center" of Fudan University will publish the author's model and explanation for predicting that Russia will send troops to Ukraine with a high probability on Friday.  Please pay attention to the official website of Fudan University's "Complex Decision Analysis Center", www.ccda.fudan.edu.cn or the official public account "Fudan Complex Decision Analysis Center".

 The content of this article is the development of the "post-event pushback" that the author published on January 25, 2022, predicting that Russia will send troops to Ukraine with a high probability.  In other words, when the author's prediction is verified, can we reverse the policy logic of all parties to see why the war broke out.  Given that the author’s previous predictions mainly examined Russia’s decision-making, this article mainly examines the decision of the United States: why does it seem that the United States is trying to deter Russia from sending troops to Ukraine, and why does Russia finally launch a military strike on Ukraine?  In other words, why did the US "deterrence" fail?  Is it intentional, or is it really impossible for Russia to be "deterred"?

 Based on rigorous logic and evidence of the US's behavior, the author believes that we can almost 100% believe that the United States not only does not really want to "deter" Russia from sending troops to Ukraine, but hopes that Russia can send troops to Ukraine so that it can "kill multiple birds with one stone".  Therefore, the previous actions of the United States have finally pushed Russia into a corner, forcing Russia to send troops to Ukraine, even if Russia clearly realizes that sending troops to Ukraine is a very risky behavior.  Therefore, Ukraine is a poison trap dug by the United States to give Ukraine, Europe, and Russia a poison.

 The author's prediction effect on the Ukraine problem shows the importance of learning the theory of international relations and scientific research methods well.  The discipline of international relations is not just talking about things on paper, but can reveal the evolutionary laws of international reality and provide intellectual support for national government decision-making and social subjects.

Ukraine: A trap set by the US for Russia?

 Tang Shiping*

 Distinguished Professor of Fudan University, Director of Fudan University "Complex Decision Analysis Center"

 Fact:

 Since the winter of 2021, Russia has gathered heavily on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the United States and its NATO allies have been in control of Russia’s general military movements.  Entering January 2022, the United States and NATO allies continue to intensively announce Russia’s military build-up and movements, and will release these intelligence propaganda as the core efforts of the United States and NATO to try to deter Russia’s military attack on Ukraine.  However, finally on February 24, 2022, Russia sent troops to Ukraine.

Reasoning: How to successfully deter Russia from sending troops to Ukraine?

 Based on the classic "deterrence" theory, in the context of Russia's heavy military buildup on the Russian-Ukrainian border and a "(semi) ultimatum" to the United States (NATO) in December 2021, the United States wants to succeed  There are roughly five ways to deter or deter Russia from not trooping into Ukraine:

 1. Acknowledge all Russian demands.

 2. Commit to Russia's minimum requirements (for example, make it clear that NATO will exclude Georgia and Ukraine) and commit to immediately prepare for full-scale negotiations with Russia.

 3. Reject Russia’s minimum request to immediately deploy U.S. and NATO troops in Ukraine (so-called “trip-wire” measures), while expediting the delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, and make it clear that if Russia sends troops to Ukraine, the U.S. and  NATO will quickly intervene militarily.

 4. Reject Russia's minimum requirements, speed up the delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, and make it clear that if Russia sends troops to Ukraine, the United States and NATO will quickly intervene militarily.

 5. Reject Russia's minimum requirements and speed up the delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, but make it clear that even if Russia sends troops to Ukraine, the United States and NATO will not intervene militarily.  At the same time, the United States has publicly announced that the United States and its allies will publicly help Ukraine, including by providing intelligence, thereby depriving Russia of military action.  At the same time, the United States and its allies announced the multifaceted sanctions that Russia could face.

President of the United States of America Joe Biden, AFP

Obviously, although the first act can definitely prevent Russia from sending troops to Ukraine, we cannot expect the United States to fully agree to Russia's demands under pressure from multiple parties, so the first act option is not within the scope of the United States' consideration.

 The second option of the United States also has a high probability of preventing Russia from sending troops to Ukraine.  In particular, from the perspective of rational choice, if the United States really wants to prevent Russia from sending troops to Ukraine, this behavior is the most moderate behavior that the United States should choose, and the cost to all parties is the least.  However, the United States flatly rejected Russia's minimum demands.

 Both the first and second options are relatively benign behaviors.  If the United States rejects the above two options, but still really wants to deter Russia from sending troops to Ukraine, the United States should choose the particularly tough behavior, namely the third and fourth options above.  However, the United States also has no choice in these two measures, but chose the fifth option.

 Obviously, before Russia sent troops to Ukraine, the behavior of the United States completely deviated from the basic logic of the "deterrence theory".  At the same time, the United States keeps telling the world that Russia will send troops.  Why?

There is only one logical explanation for this behavior of the United States, that is: the United States actually wants Russia to send troops to Ukraine, and it is trying to force Russia to send troops to Ukraine.

 First of all, by constantly telling the world that Russia will send troops to Ukraine, the United States sees the Russian leaders being pushed into a corner: in the case that the United States and its allies rejected Russia’s minimum conditions, Russia gathered heavily on the Russian-Ukrainian border, but did not send troops to Ukraine in the end,  The Russian leaders will lose face, and they will face huge ruling pressure in the face of the Russian people.

 Second, by rejecting Russia’s minimum requirements and speeding up the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, but making it clear that even if Russia sends troops to Ukraine, the United States and NATO will not intervene militarily.  The resistance, which makes it more difficult for Russia to win on the battlefield if it sends troops.  And the longer the war drags on, the worse it will be for Russia and the better for the United States and its allies.  These interests are not only material, but also moral and public.

 Finally, through the above measures, the Russian leader will finally send troops to Ukraine, and the United States will strengthen and even regain some of the lost dominance over Europe.  Major Central and Western Europe see Russia as a mortal enemy, and Europe will always be in the hands of the United States.

 To sum up, Ukraine is a trap that the United States dug for Ukraine, Europe, and Russia.

 * Tang Shiping, Distinguished Professor of Changjiang Scholars of the Ministry of Education, Professor of Fudan University, is one of the most influential Chinese social scientists today, and one of the best social scientists in Asia today, the founder and CEO of "Planet in the Palm".  Professor Tang Shiping's research fields are extensive, mainly divided into five major fields: international politics, comparative politics, institutional economics, political (science) theory, and social science philosophy.  He has produced world-class research in these fields and has written extensively.

 Tang Shiping's   books

 "Everyone is my teacher", "Concepts, Actions, Results: A New Theory of Social Science Method", "Comparative Politics", "National Politics Scholar" The theme of international relations theory canvas bag entered "The Planet in the Palm"